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25 Aug 2014
Specs continue to ramp up USD longs - TDS
FXStreet (Bali) - Speculative and CTA-type accounts continue to ramp up their aggregate bull position in the USD, according to the latest CFTC data, notes TDS.
Key Quotes
"Speculative and CTA-type accounts continue to ramp up their aggregate bull position in the USD, according to the latest CFTC data. Net EUR, CHF and JPY shorts constitute the biggest bets on the IMM currently, with only relatively modest long positions in the commodity bloc providing an offset. The aggregate long USD position that works out from the positioning plays in the major currencies equates to USD28.9bn, the biggest effective bet on a USD rally since mid-2013."
"Net EUR shorts increased again in the week through August 19th; net speculative EUR shorts totaled -138.9k contracts this week, up form –126.0k in the prior week. This positioning gets the market back to the sorts of levels prevailing in 2012—though we remain well off the absolute net short peak of –214k contracts seen in June of that year. Back then, the ECB saved the EUR and helped trigger a wave of short-covering (President Draghi’s “do all it takes” promise). This time, the ECB seems less likely to ride to the EUR’s rescue, however."
"Net JPY short positioning picked up again to –87.2k contracts (from –81.1k); speculative short positioning remains high but it is within the recent range. Net short bets against the CHF have picked up in recent weeks and probably reflect a pure play on the USD rather than a cross trade, given the CHF’s sustained slide below the 200-day MA through July. The latest week’s data showed modest short covering, however, cutting the position to –15.4k (from –17.3k in the August 12th week)."
"Speculative FX accounts remain positive on the commodity currencies—despite the recent slide in commodity prices broadly. More headwinds may emerge going forward given the intensifying focus on Fed policy prospects. Net AUD longs rose to +36.5k contracts this week (+29.5k last) while net NZD longs were little changed at +12.0k. Net CAD longs were cut aggressively (+7.3k, from +17.9k), however, suggesting that investors took advantage of volatility around the restatement of the July employment report to cut CAD longs. In the MXN, specs went from effectively flat last week to a net long of 12.4k contracts."
Key Quotes
"Speculative and CTA-type accounts continue to ramp up their aggregate bull position in the USD, according to the latest CFTC data. Net EUR, CHF and JPY shorts constitute the biggest bets on the IMM currently, with only relatively modest long positions in the commodity bloc providing an offset. The aggregate long USD position that works out from the positioning plays in the major currencies equates to USD28.9bn, the biggest effective bet on a USD rally since mid-2013."
"Net EUR shorts increased again in the week through August 19th; net speculative EUR shorts totaled -138.9k contracts this week, up form –126.0k in the prior week. This positioning gets the market back to the sorts of levels prevailing in 2012—though we remain well off the absolute net short peak of –214k contracts seen in June of that year. Back then, the ECB saved the EUR and helped trigger a wave of short-covering (President Draghi’s “do all it takes” promise). This time, the ECB seems less likely to ride to the EUR’s rescue, however."
"Net JPY short positioning picked up again to –87.2k contracts (from –81.1k); speculative short positioning remains high but it is within the recent range. Net short bets against the CHF have picked up in recent weeks and probably reflect a pure play on the USD rather than a cross trade, given the CHF’s sustained slide below the 200-day MA through July. The latest week’s data showed modest short covering, however, cutting the position to –15.4k (from –17.3k in the August 12th week)."
"Speculative FX accounts remain positive on the commodity currencies—despite the recent slide in commodity prices broadly. More headwinds may emerge going forward given the intensifying focus on Fed policy prospects. Net AUD longs rose to +36.5k contracts this week (+29.5k last) while net NZD longs were little changed at +12.0k. Net CAD longs were cut aggressively (+7.3k, from +17.9k), however, suggesting that investors took advantage of volatility around the restatement of the July employment report to cut CAD longs. In the MXN, specs went from effectively flat last week to a net long of 12.4k contracts."