Global economy to contract 3.7% this year – Reuters poll

According to the latest Reuters poll of over 250 economists, the narrative on the global economic recovery has mostly faded, as the contraction is precited to be deeper than previously estimated.

Key findings

“When asked how the global economic recovery outlook had changed over the past month, 80% or 71 of nearly 90 economists said it had worsened or at best stayed the same.

The remaining respondents said it had improved, despite global gross domestic product forecasts for this year in the wider poll down from a month ago and roughly the same in a worst-case scenario.

The world economy was forecast to shrink 3.7% this year and grow 5.4% next year, compared to a contraction of 3.2% and growth of 5.4%, respectively, in the previous poll.

While that median consensus for this year is less pessimistic than the IMF’s projection of -4.9%, in a worst-case scenario in the latest poll the global economy was forecast to shrink 6.0%.”

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