NFP: Biggest decline since March 2009 – Nordea

Nonfarm payroll numbers from March undershot consensus materially, posting the biggest decline since March 2009. An even bigger plunge will, however, come next month, analysts at Nordea brief.

Key quotes

“Nonfarm payrolls clearly undershot consensus for March with a reading of -700k. This is the biggest decline since March 2009. The streak of 113 consecutive months of payroll gains has now been broken.”

“The unemployment rate jumped by 1.9%-point, with the broader U-6 measure posting its biggest monthly increase ever. The participation rate declined by 0.7%-point which is also the biggest drop ever.”

“Wages increased 0.4% m/m, clearly beating consensus, but this is simply due to low income earners being withdrawn from the equation. Wage growth will likely slow in coming months.”