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28 Jan 2020

WTI bounces on OPEC output cuts story

  • WTI correcting six consecutive days of supply. 
  • A bounce on Wall Street supporting WTI prices, +1.08% on the session. 
  • Energy markets are particularly vulnerable to the coronavirus spread.

​​​​​​​Economics, supply factors and even the tensions in the middle east have been cast aside. The markets are taking the threat of a spread in the coronavirus as very real and imminent and that is weighing on global growth prospects and demand for the price of oil. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) hit a three month low yesterday on fears of global contagion in both panic and the virus itself. 

However, bulls stepped to the plate on Tuesday following a Reuters report that was citing OPEC sources, that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries wants to extend their current oil-output cuts until at least June. There was also the possibility of floated by OPEC of stepping in with deeper cuts if oil demand dried up due to the coronavirus. 

Coronavirus spreading

Meanwhile, the latest reports are that the number of known cases of the new virus rose by nearly 60% overnight. A shortage of test kits has led experts to warn that the real number may be higher. Germany, Japan and Taiwan report first coronavirus patients who didn’t visit China. 

At the same time, analysts at TD Securities explained that "an abundance of supply and lackluster product demand which has been most clearly observed in the aftermath of the US-Iranian tensions and Libyan Crisis which failed to make their mark despite nearly 1m bpd of supply lost."

"As speculators price-in a double-whammy from fears of weakening demand and oversupply, CTA funds are adding downside pressure as a large-scale selling program takes place across WTI, and RBOB gasoline, with more moderate selling in Brent."

WTI levels

 

Jan 28, 2020

US CBO forecasts USD1 trillion FY2020 budget deficit, inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2%

In the CBO’s latest projections of the outlook under current law, it is cited that there will be deficits remaining in large by historical standards:
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Jan 28, 2020

USD/JPY bulls step in on optimism surrounding coronavirus

As far as the coronavirus goes, the latest reports are that the number of known cases of the new virus rose by nearly 60% overnight. A shortage of tes
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