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22 Apr 2013
Forex Flash: All eyes on USD/JPY 99.95 recent high - OCBC Bank
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Emmanuel Ng of OCBC Bank notes that in the near term, all eyes will be on the recent USD/JPY high of 99.95, with the key 100.00 level in investors rights.
On the CTFC front, he writes, “Net speculative JPY shorts were increased in the latest week. Although such speculative positioning as a proportion of open interest remains at extreme levels (a traditional caveat), a weak yen remains an easy story to buy into for investors at this juncture.” Looking to AUD/USD, he notes that this week, some event risk may be expected from the Q1 CPI numbers, with AUD/USD still smarting from growth/commodity concerns and with the IMF indicating that the AUD was about 10% overvalued from a medium term perspective. He writes, “On the CFTC front, net speculative AUD longs were pared in the latest week and a failure to retake the 1.0300 handle may see a probe lower towards 1.0200 and then 1.0165 multi-session.”
On the CTFC front, he writes, “Net speculative JPY shorts were increased in the latest week. Although such speculative positioning as a proportion of open interest remains at extreme levels (a traditional caveat), a weak yen remains an easy story to buy into for investors at this juncture.” Looking to AUD/USD, he notes that this week, some event risk may be expected from the Q1 CPI numbers, with AUD/USD still smarting from growth/commodity concerns and with the IMF indicating that the AUD was about 10% overvalued from a medium term perspective. He writes, “On the CFTC front, net speculative AUD longs were pared in the latest week and a failure to retake the 1.0300 handle may see a probe lower towards 1.0200 and then 1.0165 multi-session.”