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8 Apr 2013
Forex Flash: Watch for markets to continue to express bearish Yen view in nearterm - OCBC Bank
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Emmanuel Ng of OCBC Bank recommends that investors look for markets to continue to express a bearish yen view going ahead with short-end riskies once again favoring dollar calls over since last week.
Looking to the CFTC data, he writes, “Net speculative JPY shorts were pared in the latest week but this data pre-dated the BOJ and US NFP numbers. In the near term, expect the USD/JPY to continue to push the envelope in terms of upside potential, with any near term retracement likely limited to the 97.30 area. To reiterate, any dollar softness arising from a disappointing US nonfarm numbers may well be numbed by the market’s new found dovishness for the JPY.”
Looking to AUD/USD, he is neutral, commenting that as global growth concerns remain near the surface with the AUS trapped in a tug of war between a weak dollar and worrying global macro fundamentals. He writes, “Note that a sustained breach below 1.0350 area may threaten 1.0300 neighborhood, with net speculative CFTC AUD longs also being reduced in the latest week.”
Looking to the CFTC data, he writes, “Net speculative JPY shorts were pared in the latest week but this data pre-dated the BOJ and US NFP numbers. In the near term, expect the USD/JPY to continue to push the envelope in terms of upside potential, with any near term retracement likely limited to the 97.30 area. To reiterate, any dollar softness arising from a disappointing US nonfarm numbers may well be numbed by the market’s new found dovishness for the JPY.”
Looking to AUD/USD, he is neutral, commenting that as global growth concerns remain near the surface with the AUS trapped in a tug of war between a weak dollar and worrying global macro fundamentals. He writes, “Note that a sustained breach below 1.0350 area may threaten 1.0300 neighborhood, with net speculative CFTC AUD longs also being reduced in the latest week.”