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1 Apr 2014
EUR bearish, short-term - Scotiabank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Camilla Sutton, CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank explained they she is short‐term bearish on EUR with most studies continue to warn of EUR downside leading into Thursday ECB decision.
Key Quotes
"EUR is elevated, still flirting with the 1.3800 level, trading above its 1.3700 year-to-date average and its 1.3409 1-year average. Yesterday’s release of Q413 IMF reserve data confirmed diversification flows into EUR, which have likely added to the resiliency of EUR”
"The fundamental releases from Europe were encouraging as German unemployment was better than expected adding 12k jobs in March and driving the unemployment rate down to 6.7%; while German manufacturing PMI came in essentially as expected at 53.7; it was a similar trend in Eurozone as a whole, with the unemployment rate falling to 11.9% and the manufacturing PMI steady at 53."
"The risk that the ECB acts against disinflation have increased, even in light of today’s steady PMI and lower unemployment. EUR shorts are clearly tired however increasingly we see the nearterm risk for EUR as downward."
“Support lies at the 50-day at 1.3730 and resistance lies at 1.3820."
Key Quotes
"EUR is elevated, still flirting with the 1.3800 level, trading above its 1.3700 year-to-date average and its 1.3409 1-year average. Yesterday’s release of Q413 IMF reserve data confirmed diversification flows into EUR, which have likely added to the resiliency of EUR”
"The fundamental releases from Europe were encouraging as German unemployment was better than expected adding 12k jobs in March and driving the unemployment rate down to 6.7%; while German manufacturing PMI came in essentially as expected at 53.7; it was a similar trend in Eurozone as a whole, with the unemployment rate falling to 11.9% and the manufacturing PMI steady at 53."
"The risk that the ECB acts against disinflation have increased, even in light of today’s steady PMI and lower unemployment. EUR shorts are clearly tired however increasingly we see the nearterm risk for EUR as downward."
“Support lies at the 50-day at 1.3730 and resistance lies at 1.3820."