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11 May 2018

USD/JPY: Tokyo traders favour upside, Tenkan line holding

  • USD/JPY: US CPI data hard on bulls trading Central Bank divergence.
  • 109.30 Tenkan holding, eyes on 110 handle as stock stay firm.

USD/JPY has popped in Tokyo by 10 pips or so where the Central Bank divergence remains in play. Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 109.53, up 0.12% on the day, having posted a daily high at 109.58 and low at 109.35.

USD/JPY was offered heavily in US trade on the back of the US CPI miss, testing the bull's commitments at the Tenkan line and prior hard resistance level down at 109.30. US CPI arrived at +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y expected, beating the prior 2.4% while ex food and energy came in at +2.1% y/y vs +2.2% y/y expected vs +2.1% y/y prior. CPI arrived at 0.2% vs 0.3% expected m/m.  All in all, this was a disappointment while the data is decelerating with the three-month annualized core CPI reading is below 2%.

Central Bank divergence to underpin upside

The DXY fell to a low of 92.54 from a 93.16 high and USD/JPY subsequently dropped from 109.72 to 109.31 the low (prior resistance level). Meanwhile, the Fed's fund futures yields are pricing in two more rate hikes by year-end and that comes in stark contrast to other major central banks, such as the BoJ.

Wall Street stocks lifted by low inflation, earnings and trade war optimism

USD/JPY levels

Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that from a technical point of view, and according to the 4 hours chart, the pair seems poised to extend its decline:

"But is still far from bearish," Valeria added, "as it holds above bullish moving averages and also above the daily ascendant trend line coming from early April. Technical indicators in the mentioned chart have turned lower, the Momentum still above its 100 level but the RSI within bearish territory, favoring a short-term downward extension. The key here is the 108.80 level, as the pair has formed a small double top at 110.00 with 108.80 being the neckline of the figure."

May 11, 2018

AUD/USD makes a comeback, but not much of one, and 0.7550 remains untapped

The AUD/USD is walking back slightly from yesterday's high of 0.7540, but still hanging onto recent highs and trading close to 0.7530 just ahead of Au
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May 11, 2018

US investors cash out of emerging market stock funds -Reuters

EM currencies and stocks have lost their shine of late, courtesy of the increased prospects of aggressive Fed tightening, rising bond yields in the US
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