Russia: What to expect from Putin's next presidential term - Rabobank

Vladimir Putin is heading for a comfortable victory in the presidential election scheduled on March 18 as various opinion polls indicate that support for Putin oscillates around 70%, points out the research team at Rabobank.

Key Quotes

“Given his overwhelming lead over other candidates, Putin is likely to be elected in the first round. To legitimise Putin’s overwhelming victory, the Kremlin is reportedly keen to achieve a relatively high turnout of at least 70%.”

“Anything below the 70/70 target (70% turnout and 70% votes for Putin) would be interpreted as a disappointing result for Putin. It would a modest victory for the opposition, whose leader Alexei Navalny was banned from taking part due to a corruption conviction, which he says is politically motivated. That said, Putin’s unchallengeable position on the political scene is set to be validated on Sunday.”

“The key question is whether his second consecutive presidential term (and fourth overall) will be remembered for Putin fully endorsing structural reforms or perhaps it will be marked in history books as the beginning of a new cold war and an arms race with the West.”