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16 Mar 2014
Flash: Specs loaded up a little more on EUR longs - TDS
FXStreet (Bali) - The FX Team at TD Securities shared a comprehensive summary over the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders Report for the week ending Tuesday, March 11th, and which showed some decent swings in positioning for speculative investors, TDS says.
Key Quotes
"Aggregate positioning continues to shift against the USD, with the market’s total position reduced now to an effective net aggregate long of USD9.6bn, the lowest since early November last year, with the shift in positioning reflected in the generally softer USD performance in recent weeks."
"Investors loaded up a little more on EUR longs positioning and this week’s price action will likely encourage that behavior to some degree, at least. Net EUR longs of +36.3k contracts (from +23.4k contracts last) represents the biggest, bullish bet on the EUR since late October. Investors were less enthused by the GBP, shading net long positions to +21.9k contracts from +29.6k in the prior week. Net CHF longs increased quite sharply this week but the total position of +8.9k contracts remains relatively small."
"Investors piled on the JPY short positions, meanwhile, boosting net exposure to –99.3k contracts, from a –79.7k net short in the prior week. Since the data was submitted for compilation on the 11th, however, the JPY has been the strongest-performing G-10 currency (in spot terms), rising 1.7% against the USD, a development which has likely squeezed out some JPY shorts at least. The relatively aggressive bet against the JPY is ripe for a further squeeze in the early part of next week if geo-political risk increases."
"Investor activity was relatively subdued in the commodity FX space. Net AUD shorts were little changed on the week at –40.8k contracts, as were net NZD longs (+14.4k contracts). Net CAD shorts saw some covering in the week, trimming the bet against the CAD to –52.1k contracts (from –61k last)."
"The market retains an aversion to long MXN exposure on aggregate but the sizeable short (for this market) seen in recent weeks has been pared back to –8.2k contracts (less than half the –20.7k contract net short seen last week)."
Key Quotes
"Aggregate positioning continues to shift against the USD, with the market’s total position reduced now to an effective net aggregate long of USD9.6bn, the lowest since early November last year, with the shift in positioning reflected in the generally softer USD performance in recent weeks."
"Investors loaded up a little more on EUR longs positioning and this week’s price action will likely encourage that behavior to some degree, at least. Net EUR longs of +36.3k contracts (from +23.4k contracts last) represents the biggest, bullish bet on the EUR since late October. Investors were less enthused by the GBP, shading net long positions to +21.9k contracts from +29.6k in the prior week. Net CHF longs increased quite sharply this week but the total position of +8.9k contracts remains relatively small."
"Investors piled on the JPY short positions, meanwhile, boosting net exposure to –99.3k contracts, from a –79.7k net short in the prior week. Since the data was submitted for compilation on the 11th, however, the JPY has been the strongest-performing G-10 currency (in spot terms), rising 1.7% against the USD, a development which has likely squeezed out some JPY shorts at least. The relatively aggressive bet against the JPY is ripe for a further squeeze in the early part of next week if geo-political risk increases."
"Investor activity was relatively subdued in the commodity FX space. Net AUD shorts were little changed on the week at –40.8k contracts, as were net NZD longs (+14.4k contracts). Net CAD shorts saw some covering in the week, trimming the bet against the CAD to –52.1k contracts (from –61k last)."
"The market retains an aversion to long MXN exposure on aggregate but the sizeable short (for this market) seen in recent weeks has been pared back to –8.2k contracts (less than half the –20.7k contract net short seen last week)."