German GDP and ECB Minutes in the limelight today – TDS

Analysts at TDS suggest that for data today we have German GDP for 2017, which we can use to extrapolate an estimate of Q4 GDP (scheduled to be released on 14 Feb).

Key Quotes

“Our models are pointing to only a slight slowdown in the q/q pace of growth to 0.7% to end 2017, which would be consistent with an annual growth figure of 2.6% for 2017 (mkt 2.3%).”

“Today we also have the ECB minutes from December, which are unlikely to be too revealing after the big decisions were already taken at the October meeting. The focus in December was the substantial upgrade to 2018 growth forecasts, so the overall tone today should be fairly upbeat. Furthermore, if the minutes remain as mute on the EUR as Draghi did during the press conference, then that leaves a moderate but supportive tailwind for the currency. And for rates markets, we think that they have yet to fully price in the scaling down of the QE programme, so more focus on that story could see higher European rates as well.”