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21 Mar 2013
Forex Flash: Fresh cross winds for Korean asset prices are negative on net - BBH
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Ilan Solot, Emerging Markets Strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman believes that fresh cross winds for Korean asset prices are negative on net.
he begins by flagging that a possible cyber attack on South Korean banks and broadcasters sparked new geopolitical concerns. further, rhetoric from the Finance Ministry on capital controls remains strong, with policy makers reportedly considering “various” financial taxes to control inflows. He thinks that this has a dual purpose of financial stability and competitiveness (ie JPY).
On the positive side, however, he notes that there is more talk of a supplementary budget worth KRW10 trln. Fresh spending will probably reduce the onus on the BOK to ease policy further, though he still thinks further easing is possible this year. He writes, “We remain bearish on KRW, especially relative to other EM Asian currencies, but we are surprised that equity markets have fared so poorly. In the past, geopolitical tensions have proven to be good buying opportunities. At this point, we still expect this one to be the same – but we are rapidly losing hope.”
he begins by flagging that a possible cyber attack on South Korean banks and broadcasters sparked new geopolitical concerns. further, rhetoric from the Finance Ministry on capital controls remains strong, with policy makers reportedly considering “various” financial taxes to control inflows. He thinks that this has a dual purpose of financial stability and competitiveness (ie JPY).
On the positive side, however, he notes that there is more talk of a supplementary budget worth KRW10 trln. Fresh spending will probably reduce the onus on the BOK to ease policy further, though he still thinks further easing is possible this year. He writes, “We remain bearish on KRW, especially relative to other EM Asian currencies, but we are surprised that equity markets have fared so poorly. In the past, geopolitical tensions have proven to be good buying opportunities. At this point, we still expect this one to be the same – but we are rapidly losing hope.”