ADP report reviewed :should negatively affect NFP - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura noted the ADP employment report and offered a review. 

Key Quotes:

"According to Moody’s/ADP, private payrolls added a net 173k jobs in May, right in line with market expectations but above our forecast (Nomura: 155k, consensus: 173k). The prior month was revised up to 166k from 156k. Service providing sector added 175k workers in May and the goods producing sector lost 1k jobs. (Note that the numbers do not add up exactly due to rounding error.) On the goods-producing sector, the construction sector added 13k workers while the manufacturing sector lost 3k which implies that the mining sector shed another 11k jobs in May. On the service providing sector, the trade, transportation, and utilities sector added 28k jobs, the financial activities sector gained 13k jobs and the professional and business services sector hired 43k new workers.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ May strike report, there were 35.1k workers on strike during the employment survey reference pay period. (Note that the strike report only includes strikes of 1k workers or more.) Our back-of-the-envelope calculation on the ADP employment figures suggests that about half of the striking workers were likely replaced. This should negatively affect tomorrow’s official employment report. Note that we revised up our nonfarm payrolls and private payrolls forecasts on the better-thanexpected ADP report.

Initial jobless claims were 267k in the week ending 28 May, a 1k decline from the prior week’s unrevised figure of 268k. Continuing claims were 2172k, a 12k increase from the prior week’s revised figure of 2160k (previously reported as 2163k). Claims data remain steady at a low level."