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8 Feb 2016
Fed: Yellen’s speech is all important this week – Deutsche Bank
Research Team at Deutsche Bank, suggests that the Yellen’s prepared remarks at her semi-annual testimony will be the same on both days; only the Q&A sessions will be different.
Key Quotes
“We expect the Chair to highlight that the Fed is closely watching the recent tightening in financial conditions, and that this development could affect monetary policymaking. Such dovish comments would essentially echo recent remarks by Vice Chair Fischer and NY Fed President Dudley, who tend to have similar economic and financial views to Yellen.
However, the Fed’s emphasis on data dependency means Yellen will most likely stop short of taking additional rate hikes off the table in the near term, even though the markets are now pricing only about a 50% probability of a rate increase this year. Unless there is an outsized and unwarranted reaction in financial markets to Yellen’s testimony on Wednesday, Thursday’s appearance should be a nonevent.”
Key Quotes
“We expect the Chair to highlight that the Fed is closely watching the recent tightening in financial conditions, and that this development could affect monetary policymaking. Such dovish comments would essentially echo recent remarks by Vice Chair Fischer and NY Fed President Dudley, who tend to have similar economic and financial views to Yellen.
However, the Fed’s emphasis on data dependency means Yellen will most likely stop short of taking additional rate hikes off the table in the near term, even though the markets are now pricing only about a 50% probability of a rate increase this year. Unless there is an outsized and unwarranted reaction in financial markets to Yellen’s testimony on Wednesday, Thursday’s appearance should be a nonevent.”