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23 Nov 2015
EUR/USD forecast: eyes on PMIs and Fed – Commerzbank and Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/USD has managed to recover some traction after bottoming out near 1.06 the figure in overnight trading, currently hovering over 1.0620/25 ahead of PMIs.
“The latest price action in EUR/USD highlights our view that positioning itself limits the downside potential in the cross as skewed investor positioning creates an asymmetric risk profile for the cross in an environment characterised by ‘sell the rumour buy the fact’. We expect EUR/USD to move lower in the coming month on the back of aggressive ECB easing on 3 December and Fed hiking rates on the 16 December – but positioning and already aggressive rates pricing should prevent the cross from reaching parity”, suggested Mikael Milhoj, Analyst at Danske Bank.
In addition, Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, noted the pair’s “recent minor correction seems to have ended with it heading lower again. The market will find initial resistance offered by the 1.0720 accelerated downtrend. Key resistance remains the 1.1328 2014 -2015 downtrend and while capped here the market will remain under pressure”.
“The latest price action in EUR/USD highlights our view that positioning itself limits the downside potential in the cross as skewed investor positioning creates an asymmetric risk profile for the cross in an environment characterised by ‘sell the rumour buy the fact’. We expect EUR/USD to move lower in the coming month on the back of aggressive ECB easing on 3 December and Fed hiking rates on the 16 December – but positioning and already aggressive rates pricing should prevent the cross from reaching parity”, suggested Mikael Milhoj, Analyst at Danske Bank.
In addition, Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, noted the pair’s “recent minor correction seems to have ended with it heading lower again. The market will find initial resistance offered by the 1.0720 accelerated downtrend. Key resistance remains the 1.1328 2014 -2015 downtrend and while capped here the market will remain under pressure”.