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1 Oct 2013
EUR/CAD potential top unfolding?
FXstreet.com (London) - EUR/CAD has printed a high of 1.3994 and is consolidating into what might appear as a bullish constructive phase.
EUR/CAD is waiting the ECB and Research teams at TD Securities said, “The meeting will actually take place in Paris. We look for the ECB to underscore its dovish bias due to 1) the firm exchange rate and uncertainty prompted by Italian politics representing headwinds for the growth outlook and 2) recent data releases reflecting weaker than expected inflation and pronounced weakness in credit growth (final September PMI reported at 51.1, down modestly from August’s 51.4). No new policy initiatives are expected…” In Germany, this morning, the unemployment rate came in worse and the change was a difference in expectations of 30k. For the UK, Markit Manufacturing PMI printed poorly at 56.7 vs 57.3 expected.
EUR/CAD outlook
Research teams at TD Securities said little change in the EUR/CAD outlook. “Underlying trend dynamics are still bullish but the cross is struggling to make more obvious ground through the 1.40 area as it bumps up against former trend support (now resistance). The broader pattern of trade still suggests a potential top formation unfolding over the past few weeks—the bullish underlying trend here not withstanding—but a significant break lower looks a distant prospect at this stage (below 1.3634). New cycle highs would support the bull trend and ease downside risks we think”.
EUR/CAD is waiting the ECB and Research teams at TD Securities said, “The meeting will actually take place in Paris. We look for the ECB to underscore its dovish bias due to 1) the firm exchange rate and uncertainty prompted by Italian politics representing headwinds for the growth outlook and 2) recent data releases reflecting weaker than expected inflation and pronounced weakness in credit growth (final September PMI reported at 51.1, down modestly from August’s 51.4). No new policy initiatives are expected…” In Germany, this morning, the unemployment rate came in worse and the change was a difference in expectations of 30k. For the UK, Markit Manufacturing PMI printed poorly at 56.7 vs 57.3 expected.
EUR/CAD outlook
Research teams at TD Securities said little change in the EUR/CAD outlook. “Underlying trend dynamics are still bullish but the cross is struggling to make more obvious ground through the 1.40 area as it bumps up against former trend support (now resistance). The broader pattern of trade still suggests a potential top formation unfolding over the past few weeks—the bullish underlying trend here not withstanding—but a significant break lower looks a distant prospect at this stage (below 1.3634). New cycle highs would support the bull trend and ease downside risks we think”.