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23 Apr 2015
Chinese labour market remained tight in Q1 despite the growth slowdown – Nomura
FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to the Research Analysts at Nomura, the tight labour market could help to raise the government’s tolerance of sub-7% growth.
Key Quotes
“The labour demand/supply ratio edged down slightly in Q1, but was still high at 1.12 after a record high of 1.15 in Q4. A ratio of 1.12 means that t there are 112 job vacancies posted in urban job markets for every 100 job seekers and indicates that the labour market remained tight in Q1.”
“The ratio, calculated by the government and based on a survey of 100 cities, is the best timely indicator of labour market conditions and covers both high- and low-skilled jobs – the data show highly skilled labour is more in short supply.”
“Against a backdrop of real GDP growth slowing to 7.0% y-o-y in Q1 from 7.3% in Q4, a still-tight labour market suggests that potential growth has slowed.”
“These data could help raise the government’s tolerance of sub-7% growth. We continue to expect real GDP growth to slow to 6.6% y-o-y in Q2 and average 6.8% in 2015.”
“We also expect monetary policy to be loosened further to avoid a sharp slowdown, with two more 50bp reserve requirement ratio cuts and three more 25bp benchmark rate cuts in 2015.”
Key Quotes
“The labour demand/supply ratio edged down slightly in Q1, but was still high at 1.12 after a record high of 1.15 in Q4. A ratio of 1.12 means that t there are 112 job vacancies posted in urban job markets for every 100 job seekers and indicates that the labour market remained tight in Q1.”
“The ratio, calculated by the government and based on a survey of 100 cities, is the best timely indicator of labour market conditions and covers both high- and low-skilled jobs – the data show highly skilled labour is more in short supply.”
“Against a backdrop of real GDP growth slowing to 7.0% y-o-y in Q1 from 7.3% in Q4, a still-tight labour market suggests that potential growth has slowed.”
“These data could help raise the government’s tolerance of sub-7% growth. We continue to expect real GDP growth to slow to 6.6% y-o-y in Q2 and average 6.8% in 2015.”
“We also expect monetary policy to be loosened further to avoid a sharp slowdown, with two more 50bp reserve requirement ratio cuts and three more 25bp benchmark rate cuts in 2015.”