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28 May 2025

AUD/NZD slides back closer to 1.0800 after RBNZ’s widely expected 25 bps rate cut

  • AUD/NZD struggles to capitalize on a modest uptick amid the post-RBNZ bounce in the NZD.
  • Stronger monthly Australian CPI print could underpin the Aussie and support spot prices.
  • Traders now look forward to the post-meeting RBNZ press conference for a fresh impetus.

The AUD/NZD cross attracts some dip-buying near the 1.0815 area during the Asian session on Wednesday, though it lacks follow-through. The intraday move-up ran out of steam after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced its policy decision, with spot prices dropping back closer to the daily low in the last hour.

As was widely expected, the RBNZ decided to lower the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.25% from 3.50% at the end of its May monetary policy meeting. Meanwhile, the central bank projected the official cash rate to be at 3.12% in September 2025 and at 2.87% in June 2026, lifting bets for more rate cuts. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), however, ticks higher after the announcement and exerts some pressure on the AUD/NZD cross.

The Australian Dollar (AUD), on the other hand, might continue with its relative outperformance in the wake of a small tick higher in the monthly domestic consumer inflation. The data might have tempered hopes for another interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in July, which, in turn, supports prospects for the emergence of fresh buyers around the AUD/NZD cross and some meaningful appreciating move in the near term.

Traders now look forward to the post-meeting press conference, where comments from RBNZ Governor Christian Hawkesby will play a key role in influencing the NZD and provide some meaningful impetus to the AUD/NZD cross.

Economic Indicator

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its interest rate decision after each of its seven scheduled annual policy meetings. If the RBNZ is hawkish and sees inflationary pressures rising, it raises the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to bring inflation down. This is positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) since higher interest rates attract more capital inflows. Likewise, if it reaches the view that inflation is too low it lowers the OCR, which tends to weaken NZD.

Read more.

Last release: Wed May 28, 2025 02:00

Frequency: Irregular

Actual: 3.25%

Consensus: 3.25%

Previous: 3.5%

Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds monetary policy meetings seven times a year, announcing their decision on interest rates and the economic assessments that influenced their decision. The central bank offers clues on the economic outlook and future policy path, which are of high relevance for the NZD valuation. Positive economic developments and upbeat outlook could lead the RBNZ to tighten the policy by hiking interest rates, which tends to be NZD bullish. The policy announcements are usually followed by interim Governor Christian Hawkesby's press conference.

May 28, 2025

New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (3.25%)

New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (3.25%)
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May 28, 2025

USD/INR weakens ahead of FOMC Minutes

The Indian Rupee (INR) strengthens on Wednesday. Concerns over US trade and fiscal policies undermine the US Dollar (USD). Additionally, a decline in Crude oil prices provides some support to the Indian currency, as India is the world's third-largest oil consumer. 
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