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11 Mar 2025

USD: Investor worries on US grow – ING

The week has started with more risk off, with the S&P500 losing more than 2.5% on Monday. This time, the US equity slump was not isolated and European equities also suffered. As a result, the dollar hung on to its haven status better than when US-EU equities were diverging, and we saw some textbook risk off trading in FX: JPY, USD, EUR and CHF gaining against high-beta and commodity currencies, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

Balance of risks for the coming weeks has shifted to the upside

"It remains hard to pick a bottom in the US sentiment slump and the ramifications for US equities. Markets are questioning both elevated valuations and the broader US investment/macro environment, and while data can stir near-term sentiment, further loss of confidence may need to be tempered by the US administration itself."

"Indeed, scattered calls for a US recession in the first quarter – even if probably overblown – aren’t helping. Today’s JOLTS job opening figures will be watched very carefully. The Fed’s focus on the jobs market means that there will be high sensitivity for short-dated USD swaps to today’s figures. Expectations are for job openings to have flattened in January, although greater focus may be on the layoff figures. We’ll also watch closely the quits rate, which is a good leading indicator of wage growth."

"Our view is that the dollar is embedding quite a lot of negatives at the moment and the c. Nevertheless, in this jittery market environment, we are not ready to pick the bottom in the dollar before key data events have passed."

Mar 11, 2025

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Bears turn cautious as focus shifts to US inflation figures

The USD/JPY pair prolongs its recent well-established downtrend and drops to the lowest level since early October, around mid-146.00s during the first half of the trading action on Tuesday.
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Mar 11, 2025

AUD/USD: Under mild downward pressure and can test 0.6250 – UOB Group

Australian Dollar (AUD) is under mild downward pressure and could test 0.6250 vs US Dollar (USD); the major support at 0.6215 is not expected to come into view.
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