Data and official statements have to surprise more to the upside to give the USD a decent boost – Commerzbank

For almost a week now, it has seemed as if the US data is moderating somewhat. This is not a good sign for the US Dollar, economists at Commerzbank say.

USD risks remain asymmetrical

The strong economy is likely one of the main reasons for the USD's impressive strength in recent months. If that starts to weaken, much further USD strength will seem unjustified.

Expectations are now very high not only for the US economy but also for the Fed. This does not mean that expectations will be disappointed again today. But it does mean that the risks to the USD will remain asymmetrical for the time being.

Data and official statements will have to surprise much more to the upside to give the USD a decent boost.