Flash: A busy day today in the UK – TD Securities

FXstreet.com (London) - Alvin Pontoh, Asia-Pacific Macro Strategist, FX & Rates Strategy at TD Securities say’s that there is a main focus likely to be the minutes from the 9 May BoE rate decision.

He had thought before that the market could see up to 4 MPC members voting for QE at May meeting, but he now thinks that the more likely range is anywhere between zero and three. He said that earlier comments suggested that Weale could be open to further easing if inflationary pressures eased, but more recent comments last week make a QE vote from him far less likely.

Governor King’s upbeat tone at the MPR press conference left him questioning whether King even voted for more QE, as the lower inflation forecasts give more room for easing, but the stronger growth forecasts make further QE a little less essential.

With Carney taking over as Governor in July, he could see some or all of those who had previously voted for QE advocating for policy on hold for now, until they assess in which direction the new Governor will want to take policy. So, he said that the risks here lie towards a more hawkish outcome than with the previous three months of 6-3 votes.