China: Recovery remained firm in March – UOB

UOB Group’s Economist Ho Woei Chen reviews the latest set of data releases in the Chinese economy.

Key Takeaways

“Better-than-expected manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs indicate that China’s economic recovery continued to gain traction in Mar, led by the services sector while the manufacturing sector may hold up stronger than initially thought.”

“Nonetheless, the components of the PMIs suggest that there remains weakness in the economic recovery. Employment in both the manufacturing and nonmanufacturing sectors contracted in Mar while the decline in output/ selling prices may indicate demand weakness and weak profitability. Furthermore, softening external demand and geopolitical tensions continue to pose risk to China’s manufacturing sector.”

“Given a relatively high base of comparison, we forecast GDP to expand by around 3.4% y/y in 1Q23 (4Q22: 2.9% y/y).”